An overlapping generations model ( olg ) are integrated in this cge model to describe the consumers " behaviors 本文在cge模型中整合了跨际迭代模型(overlappinggenerations),来描述消费者的行为。
On one hand, though there are lots of discussions on government debt in china nowadays, systemic studies on government debt issuance management are rather few . the paper makes a positive attempt in this aspect . on the other hand, some quantitative models applied in the paper, such as overlapping generation model on sustainable scale of government debt, linear regression model on current scale of government debt in china and game theoretical model on bond auction, contribute to clarification and efficiency of argumentation greatly 通过以上各方面的讨论,本文主要体现出两个方面的特点:一方面,尽管近年来学术界有关国债问题的专题研究已有不少,但是对发行管理进行的系统考察至今尚不多见,本文则在这方面进行了有益的尝试;另一方面,在研究方法上,本文力求通过模型方式和计量手段的运用使有关结论有一个更为坚实的基础,例如:在讨论适度国债规模存在机制时运用的世代交叠模型、在实证分析我国国债规模时运用的多元回归模型以及在研究国债招标制度时运用的博弈论模型等,都是这种努力的体现。
Fourthly, under the structure of general equilibrium, it analyzes the speculative bubbles " impact on the economy with overlapping generation model which considers the technology advances and random real capital gain ratio . it not only introduces the achievements of foreign economists ( tirole, 1985, weil, 1987; blanchard and fisher, 1989 ); but also does the creative research on the movable economic efficiency during the transitional period 第四,在一般均衡框架下,采用具有技术进步和随机实质资本投资收益内容提要率的跨时迭代模型研究投机泡沫对经济的影响,推广了国外经济学家(五role,2955;weil,1957:blanch出妞助dfisher,1989)的研究成果。
Macroeconomic mechanism that decides the existence of reasonable scale of government debt is demonstrated with overlapping generation model in this part . then, a linear regression model is developed to evaluate current scale of scale of government debt in china, and to forecast its possible tendency in following two years 在此问题上,本文既以理论的方法说明了适度国债规模的存在机制,又通过计量的方法对我国当前和未来两年可能的国债规模进行了实证考察;其次是国债结构问题。
The chapter 9 establishes one two-overlapping generations model, analysis the macro-economic effect of the system transform . the chapter 10 uses one simple vertical equilibrium model, discusses the probability and process of gaining the equilibrium by extend the coverage without reform the current scheme . as the last chapter of the whole paper, chapter 11 summarizes the paper conclusions 其中:第九章建立了简单的两期叠代模型,分析了养老保险制度转轨的宏观经济影响,考察了制度转轨的时机与条件;第十章建立了简单的横向均衡模型,探讨了在制度内实现均衡的现实性、可能性,并对引进新的参保对象实现制度的横向均衡进行了数值模拟。